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Once an order fills you’re holding something. This chapter covers what a position is, the two ways it can end — you sell, or the market resolves — and exactly how Kairos turns that into a profit-and-loss number.

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What Is a Position?

A position is simply shares you’re holding. When you buy shares, you open a position. When you sell them, you close it.

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Long Yes vs Long No

In prediction markets, you can be:
  • Long Yes — You think the event will happen. You profit if it does.
  • Long No — You think the event won’t happen. You profit if it doesn’t.
Example: “Will it snow in April?” Current prices: Yes = 0.20,No=0.20, No = 0.80

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Calculating Profit & Loss (PnL)

Your PnL depends on what you paid and what you got.

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If you sell before resolution:

PnL = (Sell Price - Buy Price) x Quantity
Example: Bought 100 Yes at 0.40,soldat0.40, sold at 0.65:

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If you hold until settlement:

PnL = (Settlement Value - Buy Price) x Quantity
Event happens — settles at $1.00: Event doesn’t happen — settles at $0.00:

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Closing a Position

You don’t have to wait for the market to resolve. You can close your position at any time by selling your shares back into the order book. Why close early?
  • Lock in profit — The price moved in your favor, take the win
  • Cut losses — You changed your mind, sell before it goes to zero
  • Free up capital — Put that money into another trade

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Settlement — How Markets Resolve

When the real-world event happens (or doesn’t), the market resolves:
  • Yes outcome: All Yes shares become worth 1.00,allNosharesbecome1.00, all No shares become 0.00
  • No outcome: All No shares become worth 1.00,allYessharesbecome1.00, all Yes shares become 0.00
Settlement is automatic. Your shares are converted to cash and added to your balance. On the on-chain venues (Polymarket, Predict.fun) that conversion is a redemption transaction, which Kairos submits for you once the market resolves on-chain. It is not instantaneous: a position can sit marked redeemable between resolution and the redemption landing, and a backstop sweep catches any that the live path missed.
Example: “Will Team A win the finals?” — Team A wins! Your 50 Yes shares x 1.00=∗∗1.00 = **50.00 deposited**. Position closed automatically.

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Unrealized vs Realized PnL

How Kairos computes it: if you bought the same outcome at several prices, “your buy price” is not one number. Kairos matches sells against your buy lots FIFO — oldest lot first — so realized PnL reflects the cost of the specific lots you sold, and unrealized PnL is the mark price applied to your remaining cost basis. The /pnl endpoints report cost_basis_usd and avg_entry alongside realized and unrealized figures. See PnL. The formulas above also ignore fees. Your actual result is net of the Kairos platform fee and any exchange fee on both the entry and the exit — see Fees.
Example: You bought 100 Yes at 0.40(cost:0.40 (cost: 40). Current price: $0.55.
Unrealized PnL = (0.55−0.55 - 0.40) x 100 = +$15.00 You sell at 0.55—that0.55 — that 15.00 becomes realized PnL.

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Risk and Reward

The most you can lose is what you paid. The most you can gain is $1.00 minus what you paid. Cheap shares have high upside but low probability. Expensive shares are safer bets but with smaller payoffs. There’s always a tradeoff. Next: the Glossary for a quick reference on any term, or Fees for what these figures look like net of costs.