Prediction Markets in Kairos: Outcomes and Contracts

Kairos organizes every tradeable question into a three-level hierarchy: a market poses a question, outcomes enumerate the possible answers, and contracts are the on-chain or off-chain tokens you actually buy and sell. Understanding this structure helps you query the right endpoints and interpret the data you receive.

Markets, Outcomes, and Contracts

A market is a question with a defined resolution rule — for example, “Will the Fed cut rates in Q3?” Every market belongs to exactly one venue (Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict.fun, etc.) and has a lifecycle that ends when the question resolves. An outcome is one possible answer to that question. Binary markets have two outcomes (YES and NO). Multi-outcome markets have three or more (e.g., DEM, REP, IND for a party-share market). A contract is the tradeable instrument tied to one outcome. It has its own order book, price feed, and OHLCV candle series. Contracts are what you reference when placing orders or fetching candles.

Level	What it represents	Example
Market	The question + resolution rules	”Fed rate cut in Q3?”
Outcome	One possible answer	`YES`, `NO`
Contract	The tradeable token for that outcome	`0xabc…` (Polymarket token ID)

On Polymarket, contracts map to ERC-1155 CTF outcome tokens. On Kalshi, contracts map to ticker-based series. Kairos normalizes both into the same structure so your code works across venues.

Canonical IDs and Cross-Venue Normalization

Each venue uses its own identifier scheme. Polymarket uses hex token addresses; Kalshi uses human-readable tickers like KXBTCD-25JUN-T60000. Kairos assigns a canonical market ID to every contract so you can reference markets consistently regardless of venue. Use POST /v1/market-identifiers/resolve on the Market Data API to translate any venue-native ID into a canonical Kairos ID:

curl -X POST https://md.kairos.trade/v1/market-identifiers/resolve \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "provider": "polymarket",
    "identifiers": ["0xabc123..."]
  }'

{
  "resolved": [
    {
      "input": "0xabc123...",
      "canonical_id": "kairos:pm:0xabc123...",
      "market_id": "0xdef456...",
      "provider": "polymarket"
    }
  ]
}

Market Metadata Fields

Every market exposes a standard set of metadata fields. Fetch them with GET /markets/metadata on the Data API or GET /v1/markets/{provider}/{market_id} on the Market Data API:

Field	Type	Description
`name`	string	Human-readable market title
`category`	string	Top-level topic (e.g., `politics`, `crypto`, `sports`)
`status`	enum	`active`, `paused`, `resolved`, `cancelled`
`rules`	string	Plain-language resolution rules
`contract_spec`	object	Outcome definitions, collateral type, min/max price
`image_url`	string	Market thumbnail image
`end_date`	ISO 8601	Scheduled resolution timestamp
`provider_id`	string	Which venue hosts this market

Market Lifecycle

Markets move through a predictable set of states from creation to settlement:

Active

The market is open for trading. The order book accepts new orders, and prices move with supply and demand.

Paused

Trading is temporarily suspended. This can happen before a major event, during a venue incident, or while the resolution source is being verified.

Resolved

The outcome is final. Winning contract holders can redeem their tokens for the full $1.00 payout. Losing contracts expire worthless.

Cancelled

The market was voided before resolution — for example, the underlying event never occurred. Kairos routes redemption calls accordingly.

Tick Size and Price Grid

Prediction market contracts trade between

0.00 and

1.00, representing implied probability. Not every price is valid — each market defines a tick size that constrains the price grid. A tick size of 0.01 means prices must be multiples of one cent (0.01, 0.02, … 0.99). Fetch the current grid for any contract from the Market Data API — no API key needed:

curl "https://md.kairos.trade/v1/markets/tick-size?provider=polymarket&contract_id=0xabc123..."

{
  "provider": "polymarket",
  "contract_id": "0xabc123...",
  "asset_id": null,
  "ranges": [ { "start": "0", "end": "1", "step": "0.01" } ],
  "min_tick": "0.01",
  "source": "metadata_cache",
  "synthetic": false,
  "price_level_structure": null,
  "as_of": "2026-09-18T12:00:00Z"
}

Grids can have several bands. Kalshi’s tick is algorithmic — finer at the tails, coarser in the middle, with boundaries that differ per market (one market ticks at 0.001 below 0.04 and above 0.96, and 0.01 in between). Read ranges, not a single tick size, and treat the values as decimals rather than floats. When a Kalshi market’s live band layout is not available you get one flat band at the finest step, marked "synthetic": true. The minimum tick is correct; the boundaries are not described, so render the ladder at min_tick and let the venue reject anything its coarser band disallows at submit.

Always fetch tick size before submitting a limit order. Orders at off-grid prices are rejected by the venue.

Market Categories

Kairos surfaces markets in several broad categories, each with its own subcategory taxonomy:

Politics

Elections, legislation, government appointments, and geopolitical events across global jurisdictions.

Crypto

Price prediction markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and other assets — including up-or-down markets at 5m, 15m, and 1h intervals.

Sports

Game winners, totals, and futures across NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer, esports, and more — matched across Polymarket and Kalshi.

Finance

Equities, forex, commodities, and macro indicators including Fed rate decisions and economic data releases.

Crypto Prediction Markets

Kairos provides a dedicated endpoint for short-horizon crypto up-or-down prediction markets. These markets ask whether an asset’s price will be higher or lower than a reference level at a specific future timestamp.

curl "https://data.kairos.trade/markets/crypto?asset=BTC&window=1h" \
  -H "X-Client-Id: $KAIROS_CLIENT_ID" \
  -H "X-Api-Key: $KAIROS_API_KEY" \
  -H "X-Api-Secret: $KAIROS_API_SECRET"

Use GET /markets/crypto/ptb to fetch the current Price-to-Beat (PTB) value — the strike price an asset must exceed for the UP contract to resolve YES.

Sports Markets

Sports markets are matched across Polymarket and Kalshi, giving you a unified view of the same game across both venues. Use GET /sports/live-events to find active games with cross-provider prices, and GET /sports/game-markets to browse all market families (spreads, totals, moneylines) for a specific game.

Key Endpoints Reference

Goal	API	Endpoint
List active markets for a venue	Market Data	`GET /v1/markets`
Fetch market details	Data	`POST /markets/details`
Get full metadata + rules	Data	`GET /markets/metadata`
Batch metadata for many contracts	Data	`POST /markets/metadata/batch`
Get all outcomes for a market	Data	`GET /markets/outcomes`
Resolve a venue URL to a canonical ID	Market Data	`POST /v1/market-identifiers/resolve`
Get tick size / price grid	Market Data	`GET /v1/markets/tick-size`

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Prediction Markets in Kairos: Outcomes and Contracts

Markets, Outcomes, and Contracts

Canonical IDs and Cross-Venue Normalization

Market Metadata Fields

Market Lifecycle

Tick Size and Price Grid

Market Categories

Politics

Crypto

Sports

Finance

Crypto Prediction Markets

Sports Markets

Key Endpoints Reference

​Markets, Outcomes, and Contracts

​Canonical IDs and Cross-Venue Normalization

​Market Metadata Fields

​Market Lifecycle

​Tick Size and Price Grid

​Market Categories

Politics

Crypto

Sports

Finance

​Crypto Prediction Markets

​Sports Markets

​Key Endpoints Reference

Markets, Outcomes, and Contracts

Canonical IDs and Cross-Venue Normalization

Market Metadata Fields

Market Lifecycle

Tick Size and Price Grid

Market Categories

Crypto Prediction Markets

Sports Markets

Key Endpoints Reference